November Election Stakes in Minnesota
by Sam Richie, AASP-MN Lobbyist
Presidential election years normally have outsized impact and draw attention in a way that midterm years do not, but 2024 was slated to be a slightly quieter presidential year than others here in Minnesota.
While all 134 members of the Minnesota House of Representatives are up for election as they are every two years, neither the state Senate nor the Governor’s office were scheduled to have elections in 2024. But because Governor Walz has joined Vice President Harris’s ticket, we may indeed have a new Governor when the next legislative session begins in January 2025, current Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. In addition to Governor Walz, another Minnesotan is making a move from state politics to the national stage: former state Senator Kelly Morrison resigned her state Senate seat this summer so she could focus her efforts on a Congressional race for the Third Congressional District this fall.
While a special election for one state Senate seat would not normally be worthy of too much examination, the stakes for this particular special election for Senate District 45 change that calculus. Because the DFL held the slimmest of possible advantages in the 67 seat Senate in 2024, 34-33, this election will single handedly determine which party controls the state Senate. For Republicans, who have been out of power in both legislative chambers since 2022, this provides an incredible opportunity that they would otherwise not have had until 2026 when the rest of the state Senate seats will be on the ballot.
The DFL has enjoyed complete control of Minnesota state government since 2023 and hopes to maintain control of all three branches for the upcoming biennium as well. The open state Senate seat is drawing a great deal of outside interest and outside money, and while state race polling is hard to come by, all indications are that this race will be close. While both President Biden and Governor Walz were able to carry this district in 2020 and 2022, and Senator Morrison won fairly convincingly in 2022, two straight years of full DFL control in Minnesota has fired up Republican efforts to turn things around in 2024 and they have a well funded candidate with legislative connections and campaign experience.
In addition to a potentially new slate of committee chairs and leaders in the state Senate if Republicans can win Senate District 45, we also may be swearing in a new Governor as well. If Governor Walz becomes Vice President, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan would move into the role of Governor to finish out the final two-years of the term that began in 2023. She would become the first Native American woman to hold the office of Governor in the history of the United States.
And as if there weren’t enough moving pieces and potential changes to keep track of, if Lieutenant Governor Flanagan does indeed ascend to the Governor’s office, it would trigger yet another special election to fill the seat of current state Senate President Bobby Joe Champion, who would move from his current position to fill the Lieutenant Governor role. While Senator Champion’s state Senate seat is a safe DFL district, with such a razor thin margin in the Senate even a slowdown of a couple of weeks to hold a special election could have huge impacts on the ability to move legislation at the Capitol.
The state House races also promise to be interesting to track this election cycle as well. While all 134 seats are technically up, there are really only a handful of seats where races are expected to be competitive, so we will look to those to see what trends we can learn from this election season. Races are expected to be close in a handful of suburban seats as well as races in a few regional centers, namely St. Cloud, Winona and on the Iron Range.
AASP-MN will update members on the results of the election in November, what those results indicate for AASP-MN’s legislative strategy in 2025 and how you can get involved in the coming weeks and months.
Want more? Check out the November 2024 issue of AASP-MN News!